- 28 November 2022
- Posted by: Federica Montella
- Categories: eToro CopyTrader, Investing
China’s growing protests are sending oil and stocks down
It looks like in China there is no rest for the protests against COVID-19 lockdowns leaving investors in a feeling of uncertainty.
That has led the stock market as well as the oil to tumble.
According to the actual level of the Long-dated Treasury yields, which is below the Fed’s overnight benchmark range, traders believe that we are going to see a recession starting next year.
This week there are important data to be released such as the November US jobs number including the unemployment rate, but all eyes are on Powell who is going to speak about the Fed monetary policy and its effectiveness.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Chart
The S&P 500 price has been rejected at the 200-day MA (green moving average).
We have been watching closely at this key technical level since it can signal a bull or a bear market.
The last time the price touched the 200-day MA was in mid-August and has been declining ever since.
Therefore, this rejection is a bearish signal and possibly a confirmation that the bearish trend will continue.
The potential support lines, that the bulls will have to defend are the 3900 level which is in line with the horizontal support and also the 21-day MA (blue moving average) and afterwards the 3800 level which corresponds to the 50-day MA (red moving average) and the bottom of the rising channel.
If the price can break above the 200-day MA, the next resistance levels are at 4086 and 4100.
The RSI moved lower to 58, but it’s still indicating a Bullish trend.
Therefore we need to wait to understand if this is just a correction in this new uptrend and prices will be able to break the 200-day MA the next time, or if this is a confirmation that the overall trend is still bearish.
For this reason, we still need to be cautious right now, as the price has to break the main resistance levels above 4100 before turning to a bullish trend.
Fear & Greed Index
The market sentiment remains unchanged in “Greed” level at 64 out of 100.
FedWatch Tool – FED rates probabilities
69.9% of investors are expecting the FED to increase the interest rates by 0.50% in the next meeting.
The remaining 30.1% are expecting a 0.75% rate increase.
The data show us that the number of investors expecting an increase of 0.75% is getting higher.
No other options are considered at this stage.
The next FED meeting is on 14 December 2022.
Portfolio Update
Overall, the majority of my positions are bullish (LONG). I have a few short positions opened recently that I am monitoring and waiting for the right time to close or I could add more shorts if the price reverts to the downside.
Right now I am neutral on the stock market, as the price can go in any direction in the short term.
I am keeping my risk score low and I have some cash available on balance to use for new trades.
If you are already copying my portfolio, please keep the copy open.
If you are thinking of copying me, now could be the right time, if you can invest for the long term (years).
Remember to copy the open trades to optimize the copy.
Remember to set the stop loss on the copy at the minimum level, so you don’t get stopped if there is a correction.
Thank you, everyone. Have a nice day!
Steps to follow to copy my portfolio automatically:
1. Create an eToro account here: https://federicamontella.com/go/etoro/
2. Verify your account and make a deposit of at least 200 USD (you can deposit in any currency, like GBP and EUR)
3. Go to my profile page: https://federicamontella.com/go/etoro-passionforprofit/
4. Start the copy (copy open trades and set the lowest stop loss possible, to allow some movement)
5. Enjoy, it’s all automatic. You will make passive income 24/7
Let me know if you have any questions.
Federica Montella
eToro Popular Investor
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