- 24 November 2022
- Posted by: Federica Montella
- Categories: eToro CopyTrader, Investing
Fed Slowdown
According to the November minutes, released Wednesday, the majority of Federal Reserve’s officials believed that is soon necessary to slow down the interest rate hikes.
The minutes show that there is a high probability that the Fed, in the next meeting in December, will rise the interest rates by 50 basis points, stopping the run of 75 basis point increases.
After this news, stocks rallied and all the major U.S. indices have gone up on Wednesday.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Chart
Today, the stocks are trading again into this key technical level.
In this chart, the green line is the 200-day moving average.
The last time it has been touched was in mid-August and has been declining ever since.
The prices are testing this 200-day moving average again today.
What will happen now?
The probabilities are in favour of positive stock performance over the next months.
Historically, equities always rise after one year from the midterm elections.
The RSI remains at 63, indicating a Bullish trend.
However, we need to be cautious right now, as the price has to break multiple resistance levels before turning to a bullish trend.
If the price can break above the 200-day MA, the next resistance levels are at 4086 and 4100.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis – Daily Chart
The Nasdaq 100 is currently testing the downtrend blue line.
It looks like it has already broken to the upside, but I would wait for a few days for confirmation.
If the price can stay above the downtrend line, it would be a bullish sign.
In August, the price broke above the trendline but it moved again back below it, creating a fake breakout.
The 50-day MA (red moving average) and the 21-day MA (blue moving average) are currently working as support.
It is important to follow the movements of this particular index for the next few days to understand if a new bull run has started.
The market sentiment remains in the “Greed” mode.
FedWatch Tool – FED rates probabilities
63.9% of investors are expecting the FED to increase the interest rates by 0.50% in the next meeting.
The remaining 36.1% are expecting a 0.75% rate increase.
The data show us that the number of investors expecting an increase of 0.75% is higher than a week ago, despite the news from the FED meeting notes released yesterday.
No other options are considered at this stage.
The next FED meeting is on 14 December 2022.
Market closure
Today, 24 November 2022, the U.S. stock market will be closed and tomorrow Friday the market is open only for a limited time.
The volatility will be none or very low during these days of holidays.
Portfolio Update
Overall, the majority of my positions are bullish (LONG). I have a few short positions opened recently that I am monitoring and waiting for the right time to close or I could add more shorts if the price reverts to the downside.
Right now I am neutral on the stock market, as the price can go in any direction in the short term.
I am keeping my risk score low and I have some cash available on balance to use for new trades.
If you are already copying my portfolio, please keep the copy open.
If you are thinking of copying me, now could be the right time, if you can invest for the long term (years).
Remember to copy the open trades to optimize the copy.
Remember to set the stop loss on the copy at the minimum level, so you don’t get stopped if there is a correction.
Thank you, everyone. Have a nice day!
Steps to follow to copy my portfolio automatically:
1. Create an eToro account here: https://federicamontella.com/go/etoro/
2. Verify your account and make a deposit of at least 200 USD (you can deposit in any currency, like GBP and EUR)
3. Go to my profile page: https://federicamontella.com/go/etoro-passionforprofit/
4. Start the copy (copy open trades and set the lowest stop loss possible, to allow some movement)
5. Enjoy, it’s all automatic. You will make passive income 24/7
Let me know if you have any questions.
Federica Montella
eToro Popular Investor
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