Investors expect a soft landing scenario with no recession

Negative day for Wall Street yesterday

On Thursday, the US stock market has gone down and all the big three indexes reported losses.

The S&P 500 Index declined 0.64%, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Index dropped 0.55% and the Dow Jones closed the trading session at – 0.67%.

For the Dow Jones, yesterday has been the first day of negative performance after 13 consecutive winning days.

Why there will be no recession in the US

Even though the Federal Reserve has increased the interest rates to an historic high level the economic data are positive.

Inflation has gone down from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3% in June 2023.

The latest data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released yesterday by the Commerce Department, has shown a growth of 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter.

That was faster than analysts forecasted and up from the 2% growth in the first three months of 2023.

The labour market remains very solid.

On Thursday, the Labour Department published the latest weekly jobless claims which were at 221,000 while the expectations were at 235,000 new applications.

The US job market is at such a low level that matches the pre-pandemic data of 2019.

Business investments have gone up at an annual rate of 7.7% in the second quarter, way more than the 0.6% registered in the first month of the year.

For all the above reasons, plus the fact that investors and economists are in general more optimistic about the US economy, that is believed to be a positive outcome of the Federal  Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy.

In other words, economists and professionals are expecting the so-called soft landing scenario, where inflation returns to its 2% target without causing a recession.

Portfolio update

I am rebalancing my portfolio gradually.

I recently took a profit on some long positions on stocks.

I am adding new positions and will close some in the upcoming months.

If you are already copying my portfolio, please keep the copy open.

If you are thinking of copying me, now could be the right time, if you can invest for the long term (years).

Remember to copy the open trades to optimize the copy.

Remember to set the stop loss on the copy at the minimum level, so you don’t get stopped if there is a correction.

Thank you, everyone. Have a nice day!


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Author: Federica Montella
eToro Popular Investor, food lover and blogger. Stock trader and Popular Investor at eToro. I am on a mission to find the best restaurants and food to eat.